ʻO ka uila uila, ke ulu wikiwiki nei i nā makahiki i hala iho nei, hiki ke kū i nā pilikia.ʻO Freescale, ke alakaʻi o ka mākeke honua i nā semiconductors automotive, ua ulu wale ʻo 0.5% i ka lua o ka hapaha.Ua hoʻoholo ʻia ka ʻoihana uila holoʻokoʻa holoʻokoʻa i ke ao o ka wā i uhi ʻia ma lalo.

ʻO ka nui o nā mea kūʻai semiconductor i loko o ke kaulahao lako uila honua i noho kiʻekiʻe i ka hapa mua.Wahi a iSuppli, ua piʻi ka semiconductor inventories i ka hapaha mua, ma ke ʻano he wā kūʻai lohi, i kahi kiʻekiʻe o $6 biliona, a ʻo nā lā o nā mea hoʻolako waiwai (DOI) ua kokoke i 44 mau lā, ʻehā lā mai ka hopena o 2007. ʻaʻole i loli maoli ka lua o ka hapaha mai ka hapaha mua i ka wā i kūkulu ai nā mea hoʻolako i nā waihona no ka hapa lua ikaika o ka makahiki.ʻOiai he mea hopohopo ka makemake o lalo ma muli o ka pōʻino o ka hoʻokele waiwai, ke manaʻoʻiʻo nei mākou e hiki ke hoʻohaʻahaʻa i nā kumukūʻai kūʻai semiconductor awelika, e hāʻawi ana i ka emi ʻana o ka mākeke i ka hapa lua o ka makahiki.

ʻO ka hapa mua o ka loaʻa kālā no nā hui i helu ʻia he ʻilihune

I ka hapa mua o kēia makahiki, ua loaʻa i nā hui i hoʻopaʻa ʻia i ka ʻāpana uila He huina kālā hana o 25.976 biliona yuan, piʻi 22.52% ma luna o ka manawa like i ka makahiki i hala, ʻoi aku ka haʻahaʻa ma mua o ka ulu ʻana o ka loaʻa kālā o nā ʻāpana A āpau (29,82%). ;Loaʻa ka loaʻa kālā i ka 1.539 biliona yuan, ʻoi aku ka 44.78% o ka makahiki ma ka makahiki, ʻoi aku ka kiʻekiʻe ma mua o ka 19.68% ka ulu ʻana o ka mākeke A-share.Eia nō naʻe, me ka ʻole o ka ʻāpana hōʻike wai-crystal, ʻo ka loaʻa kālā o ka ʻāpana uila i ka hapa mua o ka makahiki he 888 miliona yuan wale nō, 18.83 pakeneka haʻahaʻa ma mua o ka loaʻa kālā o ka makahiki i hala he 1.094 biliona yuan.

ʻO ka hapalua makahiki o ka emi ʻana o ka loaʻa kālā ma muli o ka emi nui o ka ʻoihana nui.I kēia makahiki, ʻike pinepine ʻia ka ʻoihana hana hale i nā kumu he nui e like me ka piʻi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai o nā kumu waiwai a me nā kumuwaiwai, ke piʻi ʻana o nā uku hana a me ka mahalo o ka RMB.He ʻano hiki ʻole ke hoʻemi ʻia ka palena o ka loaʻa kālā o nā hui uila.Eia kekahi, aia nā ʻoihana kūloko i ka waena a me ka haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa o ka pyramid ʻenehana, a hilinaʻi wale i ka pono o ka hana e noho ai i kahi ma ka mākeke honua;Ma lalo o ke kumu macro o ka ʻoihana uila honua i ke komo ʻana i ka wā oʻo, ke piʻi nui nei ka hoʻokūkū o ka ʻoihana, ua hōʻike ʻia ke kumukūʻai o nā huahana uila i ka emi ʻana, a ʻaʻohe kuleana o nā mea hana hale e kamaʻilio e pili ana i ke kumu kūʻai.

I kēia manawa, aia ka ʻoihana uila o Kina i ka wā hoʻololi o ka hoʻomaikaʻi ʻana i ka ʻenehana, a he makahiki paʻakikī ke kaiapuni macro o kēia makahiki no nā ʻoihana uila o Kina.ʻO ka emi ʻana o ke ao holoʻokoʻa, ka emi ʻana o ka noi a me ka piʻi ʻana o ka yuan ua kau i ke koʻikoʻi nui i ka ʻoihana uila o ka ʻāina, ʻo ia ka 67% e hilinaʻi nei i nā hoʻoiho.No ka pale ʻana i ka hoʻonui kālā, ua hoʻopaʻa ke aupuni i nā kulekele kālā e mālama i ka hoʻokele waiwai mai ka wela a ʻoki i nā ʻauhau ʻauhau no nā mea kūʻai aku.Eia kekahi, ke piʻi mau nei nā kumukūʻai hana a me nā uku hana, a ʻaʻole i pau ka piʻi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai meaʻai, gasoline a me ka uila.ʻO nā ʻano mea āpau ma luna e hoʻopilikia nui i ka loaʻa kālā o nā ʻoihana uila kūloko.

ʻAʻole maikaʻi ka helu ʻana o ka pā

ʻOi aku ka kiʻekiʻe o ka pae loiloi P/E o ka ʻāpana uila ma mua o ka pae awelika o ka mākeke A-share.Wahi a ka ʻikepili o ka ʻikepili mai China Daily i ka makahiki 2008, ʻo ka lākiō o ka loaʻa kālā o kēia manawa o A share market ma 2008 he 13.1 mau manawa, aʻo ka pā uila he 18.82 mau manawa, ʻo ia ka 50% kiʻekiʻe ma mua o ka pae mākeke holoʻokoʻa.Hōʻike pū ʻia kēia i ka ʻoihana uila i helu ʻia nā loaʻa kālā o nā ʻoihana i manaʻo ʻia e emi iho, e hana ana i ka loiloi holoʻokoʻa o ka pā i kahi kiʻekiʻe o ka overvalued.

I ka wā lōʻihi, aia ka waiwai hoʻopukapuka o nā waihona uila A-share i ka hoʻomaikaʻi ʻana i ke kūlana ʻoihana a me ka loaʻa kālā i lawe ʻia e ka hoʻomaikaʻi ʻana i nā huahana ʻoihana a me nā ʻenehana.I ka wā pōkole, inā hiki i nā hui uila ke hoʻololi i ka loaʻa kālā, ʻo ke kī inā hiki i ka mākeke hoʻokuʻu aku ke hoʻihoʻi hou, a inā paha e hāʻule mālie nā kumukūʻai o nā waiwai a me nā mea waiwai ʻē aʻe i kahi pae kūpono.ʻO kā mākou manaʻo, e mau ana ka ʻoihana uila i kahi haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa a hiki i ka pau ʻana o ka pilikia subprime US, hoʻōla hou ka US a me nā ʻāina hoʻomohala ʻē aʻe, a i ʻole nā ​​​​mea kūʻai uila a i ʻole nā ​​​​wahi pūnaewele e hoʻoulu i ke koi no nā noi kaumaha hou.Ke hoʻomau nei mākou i kā mākou helu hoʻopukapuka "kūʻokoʻa" ma ka ʻāpana uila, no ka mea ʻaʻole i hōʻike ʻia ke ʻano o ka hoʻomohala ʻana i waho o kēia manawa no ka ʻoihana i nā hōʻailona o ka hoʻomaikaʻi ʻana i ka hapahā ʻehā.

 

 


Ka manawa hoʻouna: Jan-18-2021